Experienced bettors use expected value (EV) to find profitable betting opportunities. EV represents the average amount you would expect to win or lose per bet if you placed the same wager many times. EV can be positive, negative, or zero.

Let’s break it down with an example:

Imagine you place a $100 even-money bet on a coin flip. Since a coin has a 50% chance of landing heads and a 50% chance of tails, you would win half the time and lose half the time.

EV Formula:
(Expected Win Probability × Payout) - Amount Wagered

For a fair coin flip:
EV = (50% × $200) - $100 = $0

This means the bet has zero expected value, so over time, you’d break even.

Bettors aim to find positive expected value (+EV) bets, which increase their bankroll over time.

Let’s tweak our coin flip example:
You now bet $100 to win $300 on heads.

EV = (50% × $300) - $100 = $50

This means, on average, you’d expect to win $50 per bet over time.

If you placed nine identical coin flip bets, your total expected value would be:

9 × $50 = $450

Even with a +EV bet, short-term results vary. For example, despite a $450 expected profit over 9 bets, outcomes fluctuate. You might profit $300 or $600 instead.

This randomness doesn’t mean the math is wrong—EV is an average, not a guaranteed outcome.

Unlike coin flips, sports outcomes are harder to predict. Bettors use stats, models, and intuition to estimate a team's true probability of winning.

Example: You believe Team A has a 70% chance to win, and the sportsbook offers odds of 1.50.

EV = (70% × (1.50 × $100)) - $100 = $5

Since this is a positive EV bet, it’s a smart wager—if your odds estimation is accurate.

Use EV to compare multiple bets and pick the one with the highest expected value. Consistently betting on +EV opportunities is the best long-term strategy—after that, you just need luck on your side.

For quick EV calculations, try using an expected value calculator to assess your bets instantly!